Rafal Urbaniak

Causal inference and probabilistic machine learning at scale

Rafal Urbaniak

Causal inference and probabilistic machine learning at scale.

Research scientist at the Basis Research Institute. Core contributor to ChiRho, an open-source causal probabilistic programming language, where I lead the probabilistic causal impact attribution work. I build causal Bayesian models with deep machine-learned components and take them from formal method to production.

Technical Skills

  • Probabilistic ML & deep learning: Bayesian deep learning, Gaussian processes, normalizing flows, neural ODEs, hierarchical models (PyTorch, JAX, Pyro, NumPyro, ChiRho, GPyTorch, ArviZ)
  • Causal inference: probabilistic explanation & attribution, counterfactual reasoning, actual causality (Halpern–Pearl)
  • Bayesian inference & uncertainty: MCMC, variational inference, uncertainty quantification
  • Dynamical & spatio-temporal modeling: state-space & dynamical-systems models, spatial & spatio-temporal modeling, time series (Dynestyx)
  • Gradient boosting & classical ML: XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, scikit-learn
  • Languages & data: Python (primary), SQL; some R; NumPy/SciPy, pandas, geopandas, statsmodels
  • MLOps & infrastructure: MLflow, Databricks, Docker, papermill, Snowflake/DuckDB

Positions

  • Research Scientist, Basis Research Institute, New York2023–
  • Associate Professor, University of Gdańsk (Philosophy, Sociology & Journalism)2014–2024
  • Postdoctoral Fellow (Research Foundation – Flanders, FWO), Centre for Logic and Philosophy of Science, Ghent University (concurrent with Gdańsk)2012–2019
  • Assistant Professor, University of Gdańsk2008–2014
  • Postdoctoral Researcher, Centre for Logic and Philosophy of Science, Ghent University (concurrent with Gdańsk)2008–2012

Honors & visiting fellowships

  • Kosciuszko Foundation Fellowship, host: B. Fitelson, Northeastern University2022
  • Bednarowski Trust Fellowship, host: M. Smith, University of Edinburgh2022
  • Trinity College Long Room Hub Visiting Fellowship, Dublin2012
  • Visiting Fellow, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi2011
  • British Academy Visiting Fellowship, University of Bristol2009

Education

  • Habilitation in Philosophy, University of Warsaw2013
  • PhD in Logic and Philosophy of Mathematics, University of Calgary2008

Grants

  • Probability on Trial, OPUS grant, National Science Centre, Poland (PI)2021–2024
  • Forensic & judicial applications of probability, Sonata Bis grant, National Science Centre, Poland (PI)2017–2020

Selected publications

More on the publications page; the full, up-to-date list is on Google Scholar (≈520 citations, h-index 12).